Posted by: Steve Pomeranz | November 25, 2008

Market Commentary: 11/24/08

The Double-Bind

 

The mother says to her son: “Come here, darling, why don’t you come and kiss Mommy? You never kiss Mommy.” As the child comes the Mother stiffens and freezes. When the child stops, confused, she says: “Come darling don’t ever be afraid of expressing your feelings.”

 

A wife laments that her husband never brings her flowers spontaneously and she tells him so. He is in a double-bind. If he brings her flowers, it’s not being spontaneous, if he doesn’t, her accusation is correct and he can’t please her.

 

It’s a “damned if you do, damned if you don’t” situation.

 

The most famous double-bind comes from the book Joseph Heller’s Catch-22. Here’s a taste.

“There was only one catch and that was Catch-22, which specified that a concern for one’s safety in the face of dangers that were real and immediate was the process of a rational mind. Orr was crazy and could be grounded. All he had to do was ask; and as soon as he did, he would no longer be crazy and would have to fly more missions. Orr would be crazy to fly more missions and sane if he didn’t, but if he was sane he had to fly them. If he flew them he was crazy and didn’t have to; but if he didn’t want to, he was sane and had to. Yossarian was moved very deeply by the absolute simplicity of this clause of Catch-22 and let out a respectful whistle. “That’s some catch, that Catch-22,” Yossarian observed. “It’s the best there is,” Doc Daneeka agreed.” 

 

 Your broker, advisor, or radio personality tells you to hold onto your stocks in a terrible, terrible market. He says; “Stocks beat all other investments in the long-run.” As a matter of fact, he points to many very successful investors and says: “They are buying now, not selling. He tells you that calculations of future returns for the stock market in 10 years call for a likely 10-12% rate of return. He asks: “Do you really want to sell everything now that the market has fallen to such historically low levels? You grit your teeth and hold.

 

Yet, each day you are tested. Each day you see your investments fall in value. The news is bleak and you are afraid to look at your monthly statement. If you do, you feel nauseous.

 

You’re in a classic double-bind. Caught between your desires to earn a high return and avoid your past mistakes of selling out of fear.

 

It’s a double-bind. Damned if you do–damned if you don’t.

The Way Out

 

So what do you do? How do you get out of this dilemma?

 

One of the first rules of getting out of a double-bind situation is to realize that one person or entity in the relationship is the so-called “power person”. It is usually the one presenting the double-bind, whether it’s the Mother, the Wife, The Army or your broker. They are setting the limits of the discussion putting you in this double-bind situation. So firstly, you need to understand who this “power-person” is.


Secondly, you have to make up your mind to determine what you should do. If the child was an adult, he could say: “Why do you recoil from me when I try to kiss you? How can you expect me not to be confused when your words and actions are different? This way, he regains his power back in the conversation. The husband could take on more power by saying: “I don’t bring you flowers, but I do other things, spontaneously and from my heart.”

 

To your broker or advisor: You have decided to give this person whom you trust, the power to guide you and make some important decisions for you. You have decided to give up some power and follow the professional’s guidance. But you still have to have the power. You should ask yourself if there are any events of reasons that have diminished your level of trust. I’m not talking about predicting the market’s decline. No one can consistently do that correctly. As a matter of fact, the best investors don’t even try. But is your advisor meeting with you through these tough times? Is he or she taking your call and explaining as many times necessary, why you are invested in “this or that”? Is he acutely aware of your emotional risk tolerance? Are you confident that despite the markets weakness, your total portfolio is basically sound? If not, you have the power to change and break the double-bind.

 

What about your humble radio advisor? Should you follow what I or any other TV or magazine guru has to say? Do you want to give your power over to a person that has to speak in generalities to get a point across? No.  Take in the info, feed it through your logic, learn a little more, talk to others and get your own view. Ask your advisor to comment on these questions. Any good advisor will take other’s words and thoughts into consideration.

 

What about my original challenge to break the double-bind? The challenge was: “Hold on and watch your investments decline in value, or sell everything and get out of the market entirely?”

 

It’s in your power; there is no real double-bind when you know what to do.  Do you really think you’re problems will be solved by buying CDs at 4%? If so, do it and don’t look back.    

 

 

Is the current value of your portfolio, as dismal as it is, having an effect on you right now, other than emotionally? If not, why the panic? If you can be sure of anything, what goes down will come up eventually. No one’s life and no market experiences wonderful times exclusively. 

 

There are always the bad days, months and sometimes even years. Can you wait? Can you “tough” this one out? If so, stay in. invest on dips and don’t look back.

 Make your decision. Stick with it and get out of your double-bind.   

 Get your power back!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Responses

  1. Steve,

    A very accurate description of the double-bind. Gregory Bateson, who came up with this theory,
    would have enjoyed your correlation with the markets.

    Thanks, Dr. Rita

    • Thanks for your feedback. This week’s blog covers more psychological issues as well. We’ll post the link shortly.


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